Honey's fade signals traded as bull put spreads in our own paper book on Yahoo prices: sell the at-the-money put, buy the 16-delta put, on the weekly expiry closest to 3 days. Rolled each expiry day at 15:30 New York to the next weekly while Honey's trade is open; bought back when Honey exits. $2,000 of buying power a trade (1 contract when one spread needs more), the same contracts on every roll. Every fill is at the mid; Yahoo's option prices run about 15 minutes late, so each fill is repainted with the real mid that much later (est. = not yet). Entries start at 09:47 New York. Paper only.
Open P&L
-$5,772
4 trades · at mid, incl. its rolls so far
Open trades
4
1 closed so far · 0 won
Closed today
$0(0)
none yet
Closed this week
-$2,202(1)
0% won
Buying power in use
$13,912
$2,000 a trade · the most a spread can lose, incl. rolls
Open spreads · click one for its expected value
AMAT (1)bull put
-$1,203
455 / 430 · exp Fri 16 Oct · open -$1,203
put −5.4%exit 32.7% · +$808
ARM (3)bull put
-$3,722
267.5 / 247.5 · exp Fri 16 Oct · open -$3,315 · rolls -$407
put −8.5%exit 32.5% · +$1,488
ASML (1)bull put
-$217
1695 / 1590 · exp Fri 16 Oct · open -$217
put −2.2%exit 15.4% · +$3,718
LRCX (1)bull put
-$630
295 / 275 · exp Fri 16 Oct · open -$630
put −6.0%exit 30.5%
AMAT · 455 / 430 bull put ×1 · exp Fri 16 Oct
stock 430.50 (mark) · 0.4 days to expiry · IV 96% sold put / 68% bought put · credit $8.11 a share = +$810 · max loss −$1,690
Simple EV
-$1,592
(1 − Δ sold) × max profit + Δ sold × max loss = (1 − 0.96) × +$810 + 0.96 × −$1,690
Simple-partial EV
-$983
+ the zone between the strikes at the average: (1 − 0.96) × +$810 + 0.47 × −$1,690 + 0.49 × −$440
Real EV
-$1,150
every 1c between the strikes at its Black-Scholes odds: 4% × +$810 + 49% × −$1,690 + the zone between −$351
Payoff at expiry · the odds of each price shaded
Max profit
4%
stock at or above 455 at expiry: keep +$810
In between
47%
between 430 and 455: part of it; breakeven 446.89
Max loss
49%
stock at or below 430: lose $1,690
Close now at the mid: -$1,203 At this spread's expiry, from the stock now, before fees ($0.55 a contract a side). The bot rolls weekly and buys back when Honey exits, so read it as this week's spread, not the whole trade. Method: Option Alpha, How to calculate expected value (Δ = each put's Black-Scholes delta at its IV; the real EV prices the stock's odds at the sold put's IV). · AMAT on TradingView
ARM · 267.5 / 247.5 bull put ×3 · exp Fri 16 Oct
stock 244.66 (mark) · 0.4 days to expiry · IV 130% sold put / 91% bought put · credit $6.34 a share = +$1,901 · max loss −$4,099
Simple EV
-$3,990
(1 − Δ sold) × max profit + Δ sold × max loss = (1 − 0.98) × +$1,901 + 0.98 × −$4,099
Simple-partial EV
-$2,983
+ the zone between the strikes at the average: (1 − 0.98) × +$1,901 + 0.65 × −$4,099 + 0.34 × −$1,099
Real EV
-$3,255
every 1c between the strikes at its Black-Scholes odds: 2% × +$1,901 + 62% × −$4,099 + the zone between −$764
Payoff at expiry · the odds of each price shaded
Max profit
2%
stock at or above 267.5 at expiry: keep +$1,901
In between
37%
between 247.5 and 267.5: part of it; breakeven 261.16
Max loss
62%
stock at or below 247.5: lose $4,099
Close now at the mid: -$3,315 · its rolls so far -$407 · the trade so far -$3,722 At this spread's expiry, from the stock now, before fees ($0.55 a contract a side). The bot rolls weekly and buys back when Honey exits, so read it as this week's spread, not the whole trade. Method: Option Alpha, How to calculate expected value (Δ = each put's Black-Scholes delta at its IV; the real EV prices the stock's odds at the sold put's IV). · ARM on TradingView
ASML · 1695 / 1590 bull put ×1 · exp Fri 16 Oct
stock 1657.79 (mark) · 0.4 days to expiry · IV 44% sold put / 51% bought put · credit $37.20 a share = +$3,720 · max loss −$6,780
Simple EV
-$6,158
(1 − Δ sold) × max profit + Δ sold × max loss = (1 − 0.94) × +$3,720 + 0.94 × −$6,780
Simple-partial EV
-$1,248
+ the zone between the strikes at the average: (1 − 0.94) × +$3,720 + 0.01 × −$6,780 + 0.94 × −$1,530
Real EV
-$53
every 1c between the strikes at its Black-Scholes odds: 6% × +$3,720 + 0% × −$6,780 + the zone between −$256
Payoff at expiry · the odds of each price shaded
Max profit
6%
stock at or above 1695 at expiry: keep +$3,720
In between
94%
between 1590 and 1695: part of it; breakeven 1657.80
Max loss
0%
stock at or below 1590: lose $6,780
Close now at the mid: -$217 At this spread's expiry, from the stock now, before fees ($0.55 a contract a side). The bot rolls weekly and buys back when Honey exits, so read it as this week's spread, not the whole trade. Method: Option Alpha, How to calculate expected value (Δ = each put's Black-Scholes delta at its IV; the real EV prices the stock's odds at the sold put's IV). · ASML on TradingView
LRCX · 295 / 275 bull put ×1 · exp Fri 16 Oct
No implied volatility for this spread yet: the expected value appears after the bot's next price check in the US session.
Closed
Stock
Opened
Closed
Contracts
Rolls
Most buying power
P&L
SNDK
Mon 12 Oct 09:48
Tue 13 Oct 09:48
1
0
$7,376
-$2,202
History · closed trades
closed
book
symbol
mode
strikes
credit
buy-back
held
R
US$
closed by
Times and days are your own (this device's clock). One row per trade closed for good (a roll is not a close): its first credit and its last buy-back a share, the P&L of all its spreads, R = that P&L / the most buying power it tied up, US$.
updated 2026-10-16 10:49 UTC · refreshes every minute (com.jair.tf-dash) and right after a settings change · Milk bot: MT5, inside com.jair.mt5stk (live/mt5milk.py) · Honey (stock) bot com.jair.mt5stk (live/mt5stk_main.py) · settings applied by com.jair.bbser-settings-sync and com.jair.mt5stk-settings-sync